Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
